Summary

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026–2028, covering the Bank’s seven member states. According to the report, the escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf has driven up oil prices and accelerated global inflation, slowing GDP growth in 2026 to 1.7% in the United States, 0.9% in the euro area and 4.6% in China. Most economies in the EDB region are expected to maintain strong growth. GDP is projected to increase by 6.0% in Armenia, 5.5% in Kazakhstan, 10.2% in the Kyrgyz Republic, 8.3% in Tajikistan and 7.9% in Uzbekistan. Growth in Russia and Belarus is expected to remain more moderate, at 1.0% and 1.3%, respectively. Overall, regional GDP is forecast to expand by 2.0% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, while inflation is expected to slow to 6.1% and 5.3%, respectively. EDB analysts expect Russia’s key interest rate to continue declining to 12% by the end of 2026, while Kazakhstan is projected to begin easing its base rate to 16%. The impact of the energy shock will vary across member states. For energy exporters Russia and Kazakhstan, higher oil prices will support export revenues and national currencies. Other countries in the region, as net energy importers, will primarily face heightened inflationary risks.