Summary

The World Bank (WB) analyzed the economic development prospects of China. According to experts, real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 was 6.6% (compared to 4.9% in the fourth quarter of 2023). The unemployment rate fell to 5% at the end of April 2024 (5.2% in January), nominal household income increased by 6.8% year-on-year. The acceleration of economic dynamics is due to the growth of exports. Despite the decline in domestic demand, investments in the manufacturing industry and infrastructure, as well as consumer spending on services, are showing steady growth. The main long-term risks include changes in the demographic structure and an increase in the share of the elderly population. As the authors note, with the right socio-economic policies, the demographic transition is manageable. The problems associated with population aging can be overcome by modernizing production, raising the retirement age, and launching lifelong vocational training programs.