Summary

The World Bank analyzed the development prospects of frontier markets—a group of 56 countries that accounted for 5% of global GDP in 2025 but possess significant economic potential. According to the estimates, the population of frontier economies is expected to increase from 1.8 billion to 2.6 billion between 2025 and 2050. However, the ability to harness this demographic dividend depends critically on job creation, increased investment in human capital, and productivity growth. These countries hold strategically important natural resources that are in high demand amid digitalization and the green transition, including 25% of global manganese production, 12–13% of phosphate rock, and more than 30% of tantalum. At the same time, most frontier economies remain commodity exporters, which heightens their vulnerability to external price shocks and constrains long-term growth. Realizing their potential requires a comprehensive policy approach encompassing sound macroeconomic management, the development of resilient infrastructure, export diversification, and improvements in the quality of public governance.