Summary

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has analyzed the implications of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for global trade. The maritime corridor accounts for 25% of global seaborne oil shipments and 30% of fertilizer shipments. Escalating geopolitical confrontation has led to a sharp decline in shipping activity — by 97% compared with February 2026 levels. The disruption of transit has directly affected energy markets: gas prices have risen by 74%, while oil prices have increased by 27%. Higher energy costs have, in turn, pushed up prices for food and fertilizers. Additional costs include rising transport expenses. Bunker fuel prices have doubled, while insurance premiums have increased by 2–4 times. Moreover, higher commodity prices are increasing pressure on the budgets of developing countries, threatening food security and the implementation of major infrastructure projects. UNCTAD calls for de-escalation and international cooperation to ensure the security of maritime routes.