Summary

Bases for decision-making, such as Federal Council dispatches and explanatory statements on votes, often make use of quantitative forecasts. These forecasts provide Parliament and the electorate with an idea of the expected impact if a given legislative proposal is accepted. By supporting decision-making, forecasts make an important contribution to upholding the fundamental right to the free expression of will. High forecast quality is thus crucial to the functioning of direct democracy. In the past, problems repeatedly arose with federal forecasts. For example, in 2018 the Federal Supreme Court struck down the popular vote on abolishing the marriage penalty because the underlying estimate was faulty. The Swiss Federal Audit Office (SFAO) had already observed problems with forecasting in 2016. In response, in 2020 the Federal Council adopted a series of measures to improve forecast quality. These measures included the Federal Chancellery’s guidelines on forecasts in dispatches and explanatory statements.