Summary

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) assessed the resilience of global agrifood markets to extreme weather events, conflicts, pandemics, financial crises and other shocks. Experts note that the ability of markets to adapt and recover depends largely on government action. Export restrictions and measures to encourage imports may temporarily contain domestic prices; however, when applied simultaneously by major market participants, they reduce global supply and increase demand, further driving up prices. According to estimates, during the 2007–2008 crisis, such measures accounted for 45% of the increase in the global price of rice and around 30% of the increase in the price of wheat. Countries that depend on a limited number of suppliers or on imports of staple cereals are particularly vulnerable. In many countries across North Africa, Western Asia and Central America, more than half of the available cereal supply comes from abroad. To reduce risks, FAO recommends keeping trade open, diversifying sources of supply, improving the transparency of information on markets and stocks, and coordinating crisis-response measures. Rather than maintaining costly large-scale buffer stocks designed to stabilize prices, countries should establish smaller emergency reserves to provide targeted support to the most vulnerable population groups.